Wildcard → Lag Board → Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady
1998 Bowman Chrome #1 against 2000 Bowman Chrome #236 — measured, not predicted.
Building a baseline Same era Football
Measuring Peyton Manning against Tom Brady — 6 of 8 observations needed before a baseline means anything.
- Ratio now
- 1.7%
- Baseline
- not established yet
- Vs baseline
- —
- Observations
- 6
- Tom Brady, 30d
- -2.3%
- Peyton Manning, 30d
- +8.3%
Saves Peyton Manning's 1998 Bowman Chrome #1 to your watchlist, where the daily scan flags listings priced under that card's own comparable sales. That is a different question from this board: the watchlist will not tell you when this ratio moves, and nothing here alerts on the gap.
Every recorded observation
| Observed | Ratio | Peer | Anchor | vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 1.7% | $68 | $3,956 | — |
| 2026-10-18 | 1.7% | $68 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-17 | 1.7% | $68 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-16 | 1.6% | $63 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-15 | 1.6% | $63 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | 1.6% | $63 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-13 | 3% | $275 | $9,162 | — |
| 2026-10-12 | 3% | $275 | $9,050 | — |
| 2026-10-10 | 3.1% | $277 | $9,050 | — |
| 2026-10-09 | 1.6% | $67 | $4,334 | — |
| 2026-10-08 | 1.6% | $67 | $4,334 | — |
| 2026-10-07 | 1.7% | $75 | $4,334 | — |
| 2026-10-06 | 1.7% | $75 | $4,293 | — |
| 2026-10-05 | 1.7% | $75 | $4,293 | — |
| 2026-10-04 | 1.7% | $75 | $4,293 | — |
| 2026-10-03 | 1.7% | $76 | $4,500 | — |
| 2026-10-02 | 1.6% | $74 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-10-01 | 1.6% | $74 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 1.6% | $74 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 1.6% | $74 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-28 | 1.3% | $61 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-27 | 1.3% | $61 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | 1.3% | $61 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | 1.3% | $61 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.7% | $83 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | 1.7% | $83 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 1.7% | $83 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | 1.7% | $83 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.7% | $83 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 1.7% | $83 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 2.1% | $102 | $4,836 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 2% | $102 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | 1.6% | $81 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 1.6% | $81 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-14 | 1.6% | $81 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.6% | $81 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 1.6% | $79 | $5,057 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 1.6% | $79 | $5,057 | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 1.5% | $79 | $5,335 | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 1.5% | $78 | $5,335 | — |
Why these two
The same product line two years apart and the defining quarterback rivalry of the era, which makes this the nearest thing modern football has to a like-for-like pair.
What would make this wrong
Two Super Bowl wins against seven. If that is what the gap is made of, the market has reached a verdict rather than mispriced anything, and a verdict does not come back on a schedule.
How this is measured
Priced on ungraded (raw) copies, not the PSA 9 this pairing names — the price guide returned no value for those grades on this subscription, so both cards fell back to the same basis. The ratio is a like-for-like comparison and the history is sound; the grade in the card names above is what it does not describe.
Each scan records one number: the fair value of Peyton Manning's 1998 Bowman Chrome #1 divided by the fair value of Tom Brady's 2000 Bowman Chrome #236, both from comparable sales. The baseline is the median of those observations over 90 days — excluding the most recent 21, so a fresh move cannot drag down the very number it is being measured against. Below 8 observations there is no baseline and this page says so instead of showing one.
The baseline is never authored. It is the median of what was recorded, or it does not exist. Nobody types a target ratio into this system.
This is an observation about a historical relationship, not a forecast. A gap that never closes means the market permanently re-rated Peyton Manning rather than temporarily forgot him — that is the risk in every pairing here, and it does not mean-revert on a schedule.
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