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Dan Marino vs Joe Montana

1984 Topps #123 against 1981 Topps #216 — measured, not predicted.

Building a baseline Same era Football

Measuring Dan Marino against Joe Montana — 5 of 8 observations needed before a baseline means anything.

Ratio now
44.2%
Baseline
not established yet
Vs baseline
—
Observations
5
Joe Montana, 30d
-5.3%
Dan Marino, 30d
+7.8%
☆ Watch Dan Marino's card

Saves Dan Marino's 1984 Topps #123 to your watchlist, where the daily scan flags listings priced under that card's own comparable sales. That is a different question from this board: the watchlist will not tell you when this ratio moves, and nothing here alerts on the gap.

held out of the baseline25%30%35%40%45%4 Sep — 43.2% peer $46 / anchor $1067 Sep — 44.9% peer $45 / anchor $1018 Sep — 44.9% peer $45 / anchor $1019 Sep — 44.8% peer $46 / anchor $10310 Sep — 44.8% peer $46 / anchor $10311 Sep — 44.8% peer $46 / anchor $10312 Sep — 41.3% peer $46 / anchor $11113 Sep — 41.3% peer $46 / anchor $11114 Sep — 41.3% peer $46 / anchor $11115 Sep — 38.7% peer $42 / anchor $10816 Sep — 38.7% peer $42 / anchor $10817 Sep — 38.7% peer $42 / anchor $10818 Sep — 33.5% peer $36 / anchor $10819 Sep — 33.5% peer $36 / anchor $10821 Sep — 35.1% peer $36 / anchor $10322 Sep — 35.1% peer $36 / anchor $10323 Sep — 38% peer $39 / anchor $10324 Sep — 38% peer $39 / anchor $10325 Sep — 35.8% peer $39 / anchor $10926 Sep — 46.7% peer $48 / anchor $10228 Sep — 39.3% peer $40 / anchor $10229 Sep — 39.3% peer $40 / anchor $10230 Sep — 39.3% peer $40 / anchor $1021 Oct — 32.9% peer $40 / anchor $1222 Oct — 34.1% peer $42 / anchor $1223 Oct — 36.9% peer $42 / anchor $1124 Oct — 36.9% peer $42 / anchor $1125 Oct — 29.7% peer $38 / anchor $1286 Oct — 29.7% peer $38 / anchor $1287 Oct — 28.9% peer $37 / anchor $1288 Oct — 28.9% peer $37 / anchor $1289 Oct — 34.2% peer $175 / anchor $51210 Oct — 25.2% peer $176 / anchor $69911 Oct — 24.5% peer $175 / anchor $71312 Oct — 23% peer $175 / anchor $76213 Oct — 23.3% peer $175 / anchor $75014 Oct — 38.8% peer $42 / anchor $10815 Oct — 38.8% peer $42 / anchor $10816 Oct — 41.9% peer $45 / anchor $10817 Oct — 44.2% peer $45 / anchor $10218 Oct — 44.2% peer $45 / anchor $10244.2% now4 Sep18 Oct
Ratio of Dan Marino's 1984 Topps #123 to Joe Montana's 1981 Topps #216. Gold fill marks where the ratio sits below the baseline, rose where it sits above. The shaded stretch on the right is held out of the baseline on purpose — see the method below. Hover any point for its values; every number is in the table.
Every recorded observation
ObservedRatioPeerAnchorvs baseline
2026-10-1844.2%$45$102—
2026-10-1744.2%$45$102—
2026-10-1641.9%$45$108—
2026-10-1538.8%$42$108—
2026-10-1438.8%$42$108—
2026-10-1323.3%$175$750—
2026-10-1223%$175$762—
2026-10-1124.5%$175$713—
2026-10-1025.2%$176$699—
2026-10-0934.2%$175$512—
2026-10-0828.9%$37$128—
2026-10-0728.9%$37$128—
2026-10-0629.7%$38$128—
2026-10-0529.7%$38$128—
2026-10-0436.9%$42$112—
2026-10-0336.9%$42$112—
2026-10-0234.1%$42$122—
2026-10-0132.9%$40$122—
2026-09-3039.3%$40$102—
2026-09-2939.3%$40$102—
2026-09-2839.3%$40$102—
2026-09-2646.7%$48$102—
2026-09-2535.8%$39$109—
2026-09-2438%$39$103—
2026-09-2338%$39$103—
2026-09-2235.1%$36$103—
2026-09-2135.1%$36$103—
2026-09-1933.5%$36$108—
2026-09-1833.5%$36$108—
2026-09-1738.7%$42$108—
2026-09-1638.7%$42$108—
2026-09-1538.7%$42$108—
2026-09-1441.3%$46$111—
2026-09-1341.3%$46$111—
2026-09-1241.3%$46$111—
2026-09-1144.8%$46$103—
2026-09-1044.8%$46$103—
2026-09-0944.8%$46$103—
2026-09-0844.9%$45$101—
2026-09-0744.9%$45$101—

Why these two

Two vintage quarterback rookies three years apart who met in Super Bowl XIX — Montana's 49ers beat Marino's Dolphins 38-16. Same buyer, same era, same condition-scarcity dynamics.

What would make this wrong

Marino never won a Super Bowl and never returned after that one appearance, while the anchor won four. Vintage football is also thin enough that a single large sale can move a comp and take the ratio with it.

How this is measured

Priced on ungraded (raw) copies, not the PSA 8 this pairing names — the price guide returned no value for those grades on this subscription, so both cards fell back to the same basis. The ratio is a like-for-like comparison and the history is sound; the grade in the card names above is what it does not describe.

Each scan records one number: the fair value of Dan Marino's 1984 Topps #123 divided by the fair value of Joe Montana's 1981 Topps #216, both from comparable sales. The baseline is the median of those observations over 90 days — excluding the most recent 21, so a fresh move cannot drag down the very number it is being measured against. Below 8 observations there is no baseline and this page says so instead of showing one.

The baseline is never authored. It is the median of what was recorded, or it does not exist. Nobody types a target ratio into this system.

This is an observation about a historical relationship, not a forecast. A gap that never closes means the market permanently re-rated Dan Marino rather than temporarily forgot him — that is the risk in every pairing here, and it does not mean-revert on a schedule.

Look at the actual cards

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