Wildcard → Lag Board → Dan Marino
Dan Marino vs Joe Montana
1984 Topps #123 against 1981 Topps #216 — measured, not predicted.
Not currently priced Same era Football
- Ratio now
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- Baseline
- not established yet
- Vs baseline
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- Observations
- 0
- Joe Montana, 30d
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- Dan Marino, 30d
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Not enough observations to draw a history yet. The index records one ratio per pairing per scan; this chart appears once there are at least two.
Every recorded observation
Why these two
Two vintage quarterback rookies three years apart who met in Super Bowl XIX — Montana's 49ers beat Marino's Dolphins 38-16. Same buyer, same era, same condition-scarcity dynamics.
What would make this wrong
Marino never won a Super Bowl and never returned after that one appearance, while the anchor won four. Vintage football is also thin enough that a single large sale can move a comp and take the ratio with it.
How this is measured
Each scan records one number: the fair value of Dan Marino's 1984 Topps #123 divided by the fair value of Joe Montana's 1981 Topps #216, both from comparable sales. The baseline is the median of those observations over 90 days — excluding the most recent 21, so a fresh move cannot drag down the very number it is being measured against. Below 8 observations there is no baseline and this page says so instead of showing one.
The baseline is never authored. It is the median of what was recorded, or it does not exist. Nobody types a target ratio into this system.
This is an observation about a historical relationship, not a forecast. A gap that never closes means the market permanently re-rated Dan Marino rather than temporarily forgot him — that is the risk in every pairing here, and it does not mean-revert on a schedule.