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Wildcard → Lag Board → Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk Nowitzki vs Kobe Bryant

1998-99 Topps Chrome #154 against 1996-97 Topps Chrome #138 — measured, not predicted.

Building a baseline Same era Basketball

Measuring Dirk Nowitzki against Kobe Bryant — 6 of 8 observations needed before a baseline means anything.

Ratio now
2.4%
Baseline
not established yet
Vs baseline
—
Observations
6
Kobe Bryant, 30d
-10.7%
Dirk Nowitzki, 30d
+12%
☆ Watch Dirk Nowitzki's card

Saves Dirk Nowitzki's 1998-99 Topps Chrome #154 to your watchlist, where the daily scan flags listings priced under that card's own comparable sales. That is a different question from this board: the watchlist will not tell you when this ratio moves, and nothing here alerts on the gap.

held out of the baseline1.5%2%2.5%3%3.5%4%4.5%29 Aug — 3.6% peer $29 / anchor $80631 Aug — 1.7% peer $27 / anchor $1,6001 Sep — 1.7% peer $27 / anchor $1,6003 Sep — 1.7% peer $27 / anchor $1,6374 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,5565 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,5566 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,5567 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,5188 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,5189 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,51810 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,49211 Sep — 1.8% peer $27 / anchor $1,49213 Sep — 1.9% peer $27 / anchor $1,47314 Sep — 1.9% peer $27 / anchor $1,47315 Sep — 1.6% peer $25 / anchor $1,52416 Sep — 1.6% peer $25 / anchor $1,52417 Sep — 1.9% peer $29 / anchor $1,52418 Sep — 1.4% peer $29 / anchor $2,08819 Sep — 1.5% peer $29 / anchor $1,89420 Sep — 1.5% peer $29 / anchor $1,89421 Sep — 1.5% peer $29 / anchor $1,89422 Sep — 1.5% peer $29 / anchor $1,89423 Sep — 1.4% peer $29 / anchor $2,02924 Sep — 1.4% peer $29 / anchor $2,02925 Sep — 1.6% peer $33 / anchor $2,04526 Sep — 2% peer $33 / anchor $1,65027 Sep — 2% peer $33 / anchor $1,65028 Sep — 2.1% peer $34 / anchor $1,65029 Sep — 2.1% peer $34 / anchor $1,65030 Sep — 2.1% peer $34 / anchor $1,6501 Oct — 2.2% peer $35 / anchor $1,6252 Oct — 2.2% peer $35 / anchor $1,6253 Oct — 2.2% peer $35 / anchor $1,6254 Oct — 2.2% peer $35 / anchor $1,6255 Oct — 2.2% peer $35 / anchor $1,6256 Oct — 2.2% peer $35 / anchor $1,6257 Oct — 2.1% peer $35 / anchor $1,6829 Oct — 3.2% peer $150 / anchor $4,75010 Oct — 3.7% peer $150 / anchor $4,10011 Oct — 3.5% peer $175 / anchor $5,05012 Oct — 4.2% peer $200 / anchor $4,80013 Oct — 2.3% peer $125 / anchor $5,55014 Oct — 1.9% peer $37 / anchor $1,89315 Oct — 2.1% peer $37 / anchor $1,70016 Oct — 2.2% peer $37 / anchor $1,65017 Oct — 2.2% peer $37 / anchor $1,65018 Oct — 2.2% peer $37 / anchor $1,65019 Oct — 2.4% peer $41 / anchor $1,6902.4% now29 Aug19 Oct
Ratio of Dirk Nowitzki's 1998-99 Topps Chrome #154 to Kobe Bryant's 1996-97 Topps Chrome #138. Gold fill marks where the ratio sits below the baseline, rose where it sits above. The shaded stretch on the right is held out of the baseline on purpose — see the method below. Hover any point for its values; every number is in the table.
Every recorded observation
ObservedRatioPeerAnchorvs baseline
2026-10-192.4%$41$1,690—
2026-10-182.2%$37$1,650—
2026-10-172.2%$37$1,650—
2026-10-162.2%$37$1,650—
2026-10-152.1%$37$1,700—
2026-10-141.9%$37$1,893—
2026-10-132.3%$125$5,550—
2026-10-124.2%$200$4,800—
2026-10-113.5%$175$5,050—
2026-10-103.7%$150$4,100—
2026-10-093.2%$150$4,750—
2026-10-072.1%$35$1,682—
2026-10-062.2%$35$1,625—
2026-10-052.2%$35$1,625—
2026-10-042.2%$35$1,625—
2026-10-032.2%$35$1,625—
2026-10-022.2%$35$1,625—
2026-10-012.2%$35$1,625—
2026-09-302.1%$34$1,650—
2026-09-292.1%$34$1,650—
2026-09-282.1%$34$1,650—
2026-09-272%$33$1,650—
2026-09-262%$33$1,650—
2026-09-251.6%$33$2,045—
2026-09-241.4%$29$2,029—
2026-09-231.4%$29$2,029—
2026-09-221.5%$29$1,894—
2026-09-211.5%$29$1,894—
2026-09-201.5%$29$1,894—
2026-09-191.5%$29$1,894—
2026-09-181.4%$29$2,088—
2026-09-171.9%$29$1,524—
2026-09-161.6%$25$1,524—
2026-09-151.6%$25$1,524—
2026-09-141.9%$27$1,473—
2026-09-131.9%$27$1,473—
2026-09-111.8%$27$1,492—
2026-09-101.8%$27$1,492—
2026-09-091.8%$27$1,518—
2026-09-081.8%$27$1,518—

Why these two

A chrome rookie from the same product line two years later, for a player whose career ranks among the era's best and whose collector base reaches well outside the United States.

What would make this wrong

Two years and two sets apart, and a demand base distributed differently from the anchor's. Same caveat as any cross-set pairing: some of this ratio is the sets, not the players.

How this is measured

Priced on ungraded (raw) copies, not the PSA 9 this pairing names — the price guide returned no value for those grades on this subscription, so both cards fell back to the same basis. The ratio is a like-for-like comparison and the history is sound; the grade in the card names above is what it does not describe.

Each scan records one number: the fair value of Dirk Nowitzki's 1998-99 Topps Chrome #154 divided by the fair value of Kobe Bryant's 1996-97 Topps Chrome #138, both from comparable sales. The baseline is the median of those observations over 90 days — excluding the most recent 21, so a fresh move cannot drag down the very number it is being measured against. Below 8 observations there is no baseline and this page says so instead of showing one.

The baseline is never authored. It is the median of what was recorded, or it does not exist. Nobody types a target ratio into this system.

This is an observation about a historical relationship, not a forecast. A gap that never closes means the market permanently re-rated Dirk Nowitzki rather than temporarily forgot him — that is the risk in every pairing here, and it does not mean-revert on a schedule.

Look at the actual cards

Other pairings on the Lag Board

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