Wildcard → Lag Board → Joe Montana
Joe Montana vs Tom Brady
1981 Topps #216 against 2000 Bowman Chrome #236 — measured, not predicted.
Building a baseline Same era Football
Measuring Joe Montana against Tom Brady — 6 of 8 observations needed before a baseline means anything.
- Ratio now
- 2.3%
- Baseline
- not established yet
- Vs baseline
- —
- Observations
- 6
- Tom Brady, 30d
- -2.3%
- Joe Montana, 30d
- -15%
Saves Joe Montana's 1981 Topps #216 to your watchlist, where the daily scan flags listings priced under that card's own comparable sales. That is a different question from this board: the watchlist will not tell you when this ratio moves, and nothing here alerts on the gap.
Every recorded observation
| Observed | Ratio | Peer | Anchor | vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 2.3% | $91 | $3,956 | — |
| 2026-10-18 | 2.3% | $91 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-17 | 2.5% | $102 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-16 | 2.5% | $102 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-15 | 2.7% | $108 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | 2.7% | $108 | $4,050 | — |
| 2026-10-13 | 8% | $750 | $9,363 | — |
| 2026-10-12 | 8.8% | $749 | $8,500 | — |
| 2026-10-10 | 7.5% | $699 | $9,300 | — |
| 2026-10-09 | 7.5% | $700 | $9,300 | — |
| 2026-10-08 | 3% | $128 | $4,334 | — |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% | $128 | $4,293 | — |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% | $128 | $4,293 | — |
| 2026-10-04 | 2.6% | $112 | $4,293 | — |
| 2026-10-03 | 2.5% | $112 | $4,500 | — |
| 2026-10-02 | 2.6% | $122 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-10-01 | 2.6% | $122 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2.2% | $102 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 2.2% | $102 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-28 | 2.2% | $102 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | 2.2% | $102 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | 2.3% | $109 | $4,725 | — |
| 2026-09-24 | 2.1% | $103 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | 2.1% | $103 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 2.1% | $103 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | 2.2% | $108 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.2% | $108 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 2.2% | $108 | $4,814 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 2.2% | $108 | $4,836 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 2.2% | $108 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | 2.2% | $108 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 2.2% | $108 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-14 | 2.2% | $111 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 2.2% | $111 | $5,000 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 2% | $103 | $5,057 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 2% | $103 | $5,057 | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 1.9% | $103 | $5,335 | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 1.9% | $101 | $5,335 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 1.9% | $101 | $5,320 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 1.9% | $101 | $5,320 | — |
Why these two
The best-quarterback-ever argument is the whole trade: four Super Bowl rings against seven, two cards bought by the same person for the same reason, and a ratio that reads as which side of that argument the market is paying for.
What would make this wrong
The two legs are graded differently on purpose — PSA 8 for the 1981 Topps, PSA 9 for the 2000 Bowman Chrome — because those are the grades each era actually trades in. That makes the ratio a comparison of two different condition tiers, on top of the structural drift between vintage cardboard and modern chrome: scarcity, population growth and the age of the buyer all differ, and none of that mean-reverts.
How this is measured
Priced on ungraded (raw) copies, not the PSA 8 and PSA 9 this pairing names — the price guide returned no value for those grades on this subscription, so both cards fell back to the same basis. The ratio is a like-for-like comparison and the history is sound; the grade in the card names above is what it does not describe.
Each scan records one number: the fair value of Joe Montana's 1981 Topps #216 divided by the fair value of Tom Brady's 2000 Bowman Chrome #236, both from comparable sales. The baseline is the median of those observations over 90 days — excluding the most recent 21, so a fresh move cannot drag down the very number it is being measured against. Below 8 observations there is no baseline and this page says so instead of showing one.
The baseline is never authored. It is the median of what was recorded, or it does not exist. Nobody types a target ratio into this system.
This is an observation about a historical relationship, not a forecast. A gap that never closes means the market permanently re-rated Joe Montana rather than temporarily forgot him — that is the risk in every pairing here, and it does not mean-revert on a schedule.
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